30 October 2009

10/31 Forex Technical Analysis Reports (ActionForex.com)

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USD/JPY Heads Back Below 91
October 30, 2009 at 6:28 am

A selloff is taking place in the riskier FX pairs and the USD/JPY is following suit, telling us investors prefer the Yen over the Dollar as a safe haven right now. Today's strength in the Yen also stems from the BoJ's decision to end a couple of its bond purchasing...

GBP/USD Deflected by our 2nd Tier Downtrend Line
October 30, 2009 at 6:27 am

The Cable's rally in reaction to yesterday's positive U.S. Prelim GDP has hit a wall at our 2nd tier downtrend line. As with the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD failed to receive any abnormal topside volume yesterday, indicating bulls weren't fully behind the risk rally. The lack of topside conviction likely stems...

EUR/USD Tops Out Below 10/27 Highs
October 30, 2009 at 6:26 am

The EUR/USD is under some selling pressure today after yesterday's rally fueled by U.S. Prelim GDP data failed to overcome 10/27 highs, let alone our 1st tier downtrend line. Additionally, yesterday's buy-side volume came in well below Tuesday's pop in sell-side activity. As a result, a negative investor sentiment remains...

EURUSD - Remains Vulnerable To The Downside
October 30, 2009 at 6:23 am

Intra day price action saw the pair wiping out almost all of its Thursday gains during the US session today suggesting an extension could shape towards its Oct 29'09 low at 1.4682. As highlighted in our earlier analysis of EUR's vulnerability to the downside while holding and trading below the...

$ Index: Wave Two Structure
October 30, 2009 at 2:46 am

On the four hour chart above, traders may notice the latest 76.57 top around the trend-line resistance that looks to be the top of a black wave i, (which pushed the prices lower into a corrective wave ii). The most typical Fibonacci retracement level of a corrective wave two...

FX Thoughts for the Day
October 30, 2009 at 2:17 am

Cable fell towards 1.6508 during the day today. Longs near 1.65 may be attempted as there's potential bull flag in the making. The rise may come about today/early next week. However, there's US Personal Income numbers scheduled for today. Any positive surprises would confirm the bull flag. Week close above...

Currency Technical Report
October 30, 2009 at 1:31 am

Support at 1,4680 area managed to limit euro's decline and the reach of the lower Bollinger in the daily chart, combined with the strong positive candle, indicate that a reversal is possible… Yesterday's reaction led to 1,4840-60 resistance, but retracements remained weak. A rise resumption is possible if 1,4760-70 is...

Currency Pair Daily Forecasts
October 30, 2009 at 1:02 am

EUR/USD-market strategy can be a sell from the level 1.4861$ To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the MACD lines after a bearish crossover above the zero line. In order to find the power of the market, we use...

EURUSD - Halts Declines, Targets The 1.4844 level
October 30, 2009 at 12:28 am

An early extension of the pair's corrective declines was rebuffed Thursday pushing it strongly higher and wiping out its Wednesday losses to close higher at 1.4837. Although its mentioned nearer term weakness has halted, EUR must build on its Thursday strength and break and hold above its strong resistance residing...

GBPUSD - Looks To Retarget The 1.6692 Level
October 30, 2009 at 12:26 am

The pair maintained an offensive tone on Thursday cutting through its strong resistance at the 1.6466 level, its Sept 23'09 high and turning risk to the upside towards the 1.6692 level, its Oct 23'09 high. Though immediate risk remains higher, we want to see a convincing violation of the 1.6692...

Daily FX Report
October 30, 2009 at 12:20 am

After breaking through the 136.00 support level during October, the EUR/JPY reached a low at around 132.80 and pulled back to the 136.00 level, which is a technical and a psychological resistance now. It additionally reached the middle Bollinger band, which could indicate that the market is ready to pull...

Forex Technical Analysis
October 30, 2009 at 12:11 am

EUR/USD is in a broad consolidation, after bottoming at 1.2331 (Oct.28,2008). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4134 and 1.3523.

JPY In Trouble As USD Showing Strength
October 29, 2009 at 11:47 pm

The Japanese Yen pushed higher in overnight trading as the Bank of Japan skirted a confrontation with the Ministry of Finance and moved to end their purchases of corporate bonds while the jobless rate fell for the second consecutive month on government hiring.

Technical Analysis Daily: GBP/USD
October 29, 2009 at 11:11 pm

On Thursday Pound/Dollar traded with volatility. The Cable made a strong upward correctional climb from the 1.6339 bottom up to the 1.6596 top, closing the day at 1.6556. On the 3 hour chart the Sterling seems to try to remain within the bearish channel, as the bullish pressure is not...

Forex Technical Analytics
October 29, 2009 at 9:58 pm

The pre-planned break-out variant for sales was implemented and the achievement of estimated targets is supported by relatively high bearish activity level, marked by OsMA trend indicator at the break of key supports. At the moment, considering ascending direction of indicator chart, in short term outlook, we can assume probability...

FX Technical Analysis
October 29, 2009 at 9:32 pm

EURUSD Comment: Bouncing from Fibonacci support but certainly not out of the woods yet. Allow for another week or two of consolidation under this year's high. Meanwhile watch for signs of forming another interim base.

Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels
October 29, 2009 at 9:10 pm

EUR/USD Today's support: - 1.4802 and 1.4771(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.4748, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.4722. Break of the latter would result in 1.4690. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.4672. Continuation will give 1.4648.

Daily Technical Outlook
October 29, 2009 at 8:58 pm

Yesterday's bounce off support on the 1.4700 handle was an early warning signal that uptrend could resume and the decline to 1.4700 was corrective in nature. Resistance formed into the 1.4850 region by September's peak has limited yesterday's gains but the euro may resume yesterday's rally, a close above 1.4850...

Technical Analysis Daily: EUR/USD
October 29, 2009 at 8:18 pm

On Thursday Euro/Dollar made a significant ascending movement, breaking up the important resistance 1.4815 level, reached a top at 1.4857, and closed the day at 1.4835. This may open possibility for further bullish impulse towards next objective 1.5000. However, as Euro is in the overbought zone, our expectations are bearish...

Forex Technical Update
October 29, 2009 at 8:15 pm

Euro is in the correction mode falling to 1.4685 levels and rising again to 1.4850 levels yesterday evening due to amazing gdp data from US. 1.4850 remains a very important resistance for euro. If euro maintains above 1.4850 and 1.4920 levels today on a weekly basis. We would assume that...

Technical Analysis for Crosses
October 29, 2009 at 8:13 pm

The EUR/JPY pair is also forming the same shape of the short term sequence as seen on the provided four-hour chart. The candlestick formation shows that 61.8% of the last decline from the fifth to our suggested [A] is negatively pressuring the pair. Hence we keep our intraday overview to...

Technical Analysis for Major Currencies
October 29, 2009 at 8:03 pm

The Euro versus Dollar pair was able to reach the expected targets yesterday after rebounding from support levels near 1.4705. As we see in the above image, the pair is completing a bullish technical pattern with a neckline at 1.4860 where a breakout will take the pair to the upside...

Foreign Exchange Market Commentary
October 29, 2009 at 7:20 pm

EUR/USD closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends this...

The Daily Forecaster: USDCHF
October 29, 2009 at 7:14 pm

Price fell just short of the 1.0293 ideal target and losses developed all the way to the 1.0167 support. If we are going to see any stronger reversal higher then we'll need a break of 1.0205 which will then test the 1.0240-61 pivot area. Breach extends gains above 1.0286 and...

A$, Major Top in Place (or at least close).....
October 29, 2009 at 7:10 pm

In the Oct 23rd email on the a$, affirmed the long position (rebought on Aug 20th .8310) and despite trading above the key rising trendline/ceiling of the large rising wedge from Jan (then support), warned of near term concerns (and risk of throw-over, false break). The market did indeed reverse...

Market Morning Briefing
October 29, 2009 at 5:31 pm

Sharp recovery in all 'risky' assets overnight, confirming that the fall earlier this week was mere profit-taking. The Euro (1.4845) and Aussie (0.9145) have potential to rise further. The recovery has been aided by the sharp rise in Dollar-Yen (91.30) which has come up from yesterday's low near 90.25 and...

Daily Technical Analysis
October 29, 2009 at 3:57 pm

The trendline support on daily chart I showed you yesterday proved to be an important support at this phase as bearish pressure failed to push lower and EURUSD started to regain it's bullish momentum, topped at 1.4858 and closed at 1.4839. This fact should be seen as potential end to...

FX Technical Commentary
October 29, 2009 at 3:50 pm

Euro 1.4850 Initial support at 1.4646 (Oct 6 low) followed by 1.4581 (Oct 5 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4859 (Oct 29 high) followed by 1.4927 (Oct 27 high)
 

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29 October 2009

10/30 Forex Technical Analysis Reports (ActionForex.com)

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GBPUSD: May Retarget The 1.6692 Level
October 29, 2009 at 6:56 am

The US session has put GBP on the offensive cutting through its strong resistance at the 1.6466 level and turning risk to the upside towards the 1.6692 level. Though immediate risk remains higher, we want to see a convincing violation of the 1.6692 level which will put an end to...

Chart Of The Day: EUR/USD
October 29, 2009 at 4:55 am

nce again, price action on EUR/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has turned up and respected a key uptrend support line extending from the March lows. This occurs after dollar-strengthening price action for the past week has prompted EUR/USD to correct back down to this uptrend line on...

FX Thoughts for the Day
October 29, 2009 at 2:17 am

Cable has risen during the day and is testing the Resistance at 1.6480 mentioned in the morning. A rise beyond 1.6480 might find stiffer Resistance at 1.6525. Whereas the honour of 1.6480 is likely to bring the pair down towards the lower end of the range during the US session...

GBPUSD - Struggling At The Channel Top
October 29, 2009 at 1:15 am

GBP continues to struggle slightly above its declining channel following its marginal lower close on Thursday. To alleviate its current threat to the downside, the pair must climb back above the 1.6692 level, its Oct 23'09 high to signal further upside towards the 1.6740 level, its Sept 11'09 high where...

EURUSD: Trades Below 1.4844, Sees Further Downside Momentum
October 29, 2009 at 1:14 am

Extension of losses following the pair's collapse off the 1.5062 level was seen Thursday pushing EUR to as low as 1.4690. It was seen turning off lower prices today. Vulnerability to the downside still remains on the cards with lower level prices targeting the 1.4699 level, its daily 50 ema...

Technical Analysis Daily: USD/JPY
October 29, 2009 at 1:11 am

On Wednesday Dollar/Yen continued the bearish movement, reaching a bottom at 90.58, and closing the day at 90.66. The 92.27 level plays the role of a key resistance at this stage. Our expectations are for bearish trend in the short term, till we see how strong the 90.25 support will...

Daily FX Report
October 29, 2009 at 12:46 am

After touching the first Pivot Resistance level at 0.9391, the AUD/CHF fell down with a break through the middle Pivot point at 0.9333 and the first support at 0.9253. Now the market trades on the 0.9200 support level from the end of the previous month, which is similar to the...

Forex Technical Analysis
October 28, 2009 at 11:52 pm

EUR/USD is in a broad consolidation, after bottoming at 1.2331 (Oct.28,2008). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4134 and 1.3523.

Technical Analysis Daily: GBP/USD
October 28, 2009 at 11:19 pm

On Wednesday Pound/Dollar seemed to move above the bearish channel and around it's upper limit on the 3 hour chart, closing the day within it. After a huge bearish momentum at the end of last week the upward pressure is not an unexpected correction. Till we get a convincing movement...

Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels
October 28, 2009 at 11:12 pm

EUR/USD Today's support: - 1.4672 and 1.4648(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.4622, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.4597. Break of the latter would result in 1.4572. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.4544. Continuation will give 1.4526.

Will Euro Continue To Retrace Against U.S. Dollar?
October 28, 2009 at 11:07 pm

The Euro weakened against the U.S. dollar for the third day and slipped to a low 1.4788 during the overnight session, and the lack of momentum to push back above the 20-Day SMA (1.4874) may lead the single-currency to retrace the advance from the previous month as investors scale back...

Technical Analysis for Major Currencies
October 28, 2009 at 10:34 pm

The pair was able to reach the suggested target at 1.4705, which resides within support levels between the key support for the upside channel and the 61.8% correction, seen in the image above. The stochastic has entered an oversold area with a possible upside adjustment, making us expect an upside...

Technical Analysis for Crosses
October 28, 2009 at 10:22 pm

Depending on our short term Elliott sequence, the pair declined aggressively under the pressure of the corrective structure [A-B-C] as seen on the above four-hour chart. A mild internal upside correction may occur to relieve the momentum indicator before resuming the downside rally. Therefore we keep the intraday overview to...

Forex Technical Analytics
October 28, 2009 at 10:05 pm

The estimated test of key supports for the implementation of preplanned long positions has not exactly been confirmed and the result of estimated rate rise in medium term outlook according to OsMA indicator version, marked close activity parity of both parties as a sign of uncertainty for the choice of...

FX Technical Analysis
October 28, 2009 at 9:33 pm

EURUSD Comment: Giving up 61% of the most recent gains prompting some to talk about a major turn in the US dollar's fortunes. This is very premature as the Euro remains within its 'channel', moving averages and the Ichimoku 'cloud' suggesting a long Euro position. The Euro is almost oversold...

Daily Technical Outlook
October 28, 2009 at 9:14 pm

The sell-off continued down to 1.4700 – the 61.8% of the up leg from 1.4480 to 1.5060, as a result of recent losses in equity markets. The S&P500 is facing support formed by a rising trend line coming from August's low at 978.50, as seen in the chart below. A...

Forex Technical Update
October 28, 2009 at 9:10 pm

EURO bullish momentum was paused on Friday and corrected yesterday around 200 pips.Bullishness is slowly fading away with the break of 1.4850 levels.Break of 1.48 clearly indicates major correction in euro driving other currency pairs also lower against dollar.Immediate resistance at 1.4925. Breaking which bullishness will resume again. (EurUsd-1.4722) Bearish

Technical Analysis Daily: EUR/USD
October 28, 2009 at 8:14 pm

Euro/Dollar made a significant downward movement on Wednesday with around 130 pips, reaching a bottom at 1.4697, and closing the day at 1.4718. The bearish divergence is giving signal for exhaustion of the bullish momentum and trend turn. On the 3 hour chart quotes broke down the bullish channel, suggesting...

The Daily Forecaster: EURUSD
October 28, 2009 at 6:48 pm

Both hourly & 4-hour momentum looks pretty soggy and this should bring additional losses. The first area that may hold is the 82.69-81 zone but unless a bullish divergence develops I can't see this bringing any strong reversal. So break below 82.69 would extend losses to the 81.96-13 area. Here...

Market Morning Briefing
October 28, 2009 at 5:30 pm

Most non-Dollar and non-Yen currencies have taken another big beating and might have a wee bit more to loose today. But, the corrective fall in the high-yielders should be nearing its end and these currencies may run into buying interest over today-tomorrow. The Euro (1.4715) has Support near 1.4665 although...

Foreign Exchange Market Commentary
October 28, 2009 at 5:26 pm

EUR/USD closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it continued to consolidated some of the last week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher...

FX Technical Commentary
October 28, 2009 at 4:46 pm

Euro 1.4720 Initial support at 1.4691 (Oct 28 low) followed by 1.4674 (Oct 9 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4927 (Oct 27 high) followed by 1.5063 (Oct 26 high)
 

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28 October 2009

10/29 Central Banks Speeches and Publications (ActionForex.com)

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(RBNZ) OCR Unchanged at 2.5 Percent
October 28, 2009 at 10:15 am

The Official Cash Rate (OCR) remains unchanged at 2.5 percent. Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said: "There are welcome signs that economic activity is growing again. "Activity in New Zealand's trading partners continued to rebound during the September quarter and financial market sentiment has improved further. However, there remain significant...
 

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10/29 Forex Technical Analysis Reports (ActionForex.com)

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Daily Technical Analysis
October 28, 2009 at 4:15 pm

As I had expected, the EURUSD continued it's bearish momentum yesterday, bottomed at 1.4690 and closed at 1.4715. As you can see in my daily chart below, we area in critical technical phase where price is now testing the major trendline support. This trendline support could be a strong support...

USD/JPY Reverses and Dips Back Towards 91
October 28, 2009 at 6:15 am

The USD/JPY topped out yesterday and has been hit by a wave of downward pressure in reaction to the selloff in U.S. equities. Investors are taking profits in some of their riskier investment vehicles, including the USD/JPY. Additionally, the more negatively mixed U.S. econ data we receive, the less likely...

GBP/USD Treks Higher with our 2nd tier Uptrend Line
October 28, 2009 at 6:14 am

The Cable has managed to hold up well above our 2nd tier uptrend line despite recent strength in the Dollar. Investors were encouraged by yesterday's positive CBI Realized Sales data considering the damage brought upon the Cable by Friday's disappointing Prelim GDP data. The CBI release has allowed the Cable...

EUR/USD Consolidates above 10/13 Lows
October 28, 2009 at 6:13 am

The EUR/USD has undergone encouraging consolidation along what is now our 3rd tier uptrend line. Present consolidation comes with a sigh of relief considering the extent of the selloff in the EUR/USD thus far this week. Investors are encouraged by the better than expected Core DGO data even though the...

Chart Of The Day: AUD/USD
October 28, 2009 at 4:46 am

Price action on AUD/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has displayed some significant U.S. dollar strengthening in the past several trading days, much in the same manner as other dollar-based currency pairs. But the strong uptrend in AUD/USD, which has been firmly in place since early March, is...

Usd/Cad Long Off With Oil Under $82
October 28, 2009 at 4:43 am

The Usd/Cad pair broke through the red wave I top at shown at 1.0581, and that was the key for the move towards the trend line resistance, as discussed recently. If the trend upper line also gets broken around 1.0730 in the near-term then prices may trade into the 1.0900...

FX Thoughts for the Day
October 28, 2009 at 1:54 am

Swiss has risen during the day from the low of 1.0191. Immediate Resistance is seen at 1.0250, a break above which might see a rise towards 1.0280-0300 in the US session today. Note that 1.0292 is the 61.8% retracement level of the fall from 1.0452 (01-Oct) to 1.0034 (21-Oct). And...

EURUSD - Outlook Bearish Below The 1.4844/1.5000 Levels
October 28, 2009 at 1:16 am

As a follow through lower on the pair's collapse off the 1.5062 level saw it violating key support at the 1.4844 level, its Sept 23'09 high on Tuesday, threats of further downside is now seen towards the 1.4699 level, its daily 50 ema and its Oct 09'09 low at 1.4672....

GBPUSD - Still Vulnerable To The Downside
October 28, 2009 at 1:14 am

Although GBP maintained a positive close on Tuesday, that occurred below the 1.6466 level, its strong resistance which must be taken out to signal a move higher targeting the 1.6692 level, its Oct 23'09 high. Until this materializes, downside pressure is still expected towards its Sept 30'09 high at 1.6124...

Technical Analysis Daily: USD/JPY
October 28, 2009 at 1:06 am

Dollar/Yen tried to climb on Tuesday, but failed to break up the key resistance at 92.32, dropping later down to 91.60, and closing the day at 91.76, indicating reversal bearish trend. 90.93 remains a strong support today. Convincing break under that level may seriously shake the upward scenario and lead...

Technical Analysis Daily: GBP/USD
October 27, 2009 at 11:05 pm

On Tuesday Pound/Dollar climbed to the 1.6438 top, forming convergence on the 3 hour chart. From that point the Cable started descending down to the 1.6315 bottom, closing the day at 1.6374. Our preferable scenario today is downwards from the good resistance level and upper limit of the downward channel...

Forex Technical Analysis
October 27, 2009 at 10:25 pm

EUR/USD is in a broad consolidation, after bottoming at 1.2331 (Oct.28,2008). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4134 and 1.3523.

Forex Technical Analytics
October 27, 2009 at 10:03 pm

The estimated test of key supports has not exactly been confirmed and the estimated rate rise marked signs of rate overbought as the ground to suppose further rate correction period with the preservation of bullish direction for planning of trading operations for today. On the assumption of it, as well...

FX Technical Analysis
October 27, 2009 at 9:25 pm

EURUSD Comment: Dropping to the 26-day at 1.4770, giving up 50% of the most recent gains. The Euro is no longer overbought and bullish momentum is almost nil. Expect it to try and hold at current levels today.

Daily Technical Outlook
October 27, 2009 at 9:17 pm

Euro's sell-off continued on yesterday as a result of equities pulling back from recent top sides. Support has been found on the 50% retracement of October's swing from 1.4480 to 1.5060 - at 1.4770 and former support zone around 1.4830 provides a minor resistance which is under pressure at the...

Forex Technical Update
October 27, 2009 at 8:45 pm

EURO bullish momentum was paused on Friday and corrected yesterday around 200 pips.Bullishness is slowly fading away with the break of 1.4850 levels.Break of 1.48 clearly would signal major correction in euro driving other currency pairs also lower against dollar.Immediate resistance at 1.5050. Breaking which bullishness will resume again.(EurUsd-1.4812) Neutral

Technical Analysis for Major Currencies
October 27, 2009 at 8:25 pm

The pair declined as expected yesterday, where it is currently trading between the 38.2% correction at 1.4840 and the 50% correction at 1.4770, with more tendency to the downside. As we see, the pair is within an oversold area yet a bearish crossover is evident on the 20 and 50...

Technical Analysis for Crosses
October 27, 2009 at 8:22 pm

After being limited below 61.8% Fibonacci level, the GBP/JPY pair collapsed proving the strong bearish pressure obtained form the bigger A-B-C –corrective scenario- of the captured short term cycle on the four-hour interval. The candlestick formation shows that the declines are to continue over the intraday basis. AROON supports the...

Technical Analysis Daily: EUR/USD
October 27, 2009 at 8:04 pm

After the sharp drop on Monday, yesterday Euro/Dollar continued descending insignificantly with around 150 pips. If the currency pair gets consistent movements above yesterday's top 1.4920, the trend may still get into the previous upward channel. However, there is also a downward divergence of CCI indicator on the 3 hour...

Currency Pair Daily Forecasts
October 27, 2009 at 7:50 pm

EUR/USD-market strategy can be a buy from the level 1.4817$ To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the MACD lines in a bullish direction and crossing below the zero line. In order to find the power of the market,...

The Daily Forecaster: AUDJPY
October 27, 2009 at 6:57 pm

The underlying MT direction is bearish while the daily bias is bearish. Therefore the main risk is lower. Ensure that key resistances levels hold. Note key support levels that would suggest continuation of the bearish move. Consider confirming this with a bearish set up pattern in price or an indicator....

Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels
October 27, 2009 at 6:54 pm

EUR/USD Today's support: - 1.4777 and 1.4748(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.4725, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.4714. Break of the latter would result in 1.4690. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.4672. Continuation will give 1.4648.
 

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