| Majors Move All Over The Charts
September 30, 2009 at 10:42 am
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| | Overall, the U.S. session proved to be very volatile in Wednesday trade, with the major pairs moving all over the charts. The activity in the forex market was greatly influenced by equity moves, which traded in volatile fashion. The most active pair was the swissy, as it appears that the... |
| Forex Fundamental Outlook
September 30, 2009 at 9:12 am
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| | he common currency appears poised to close at its highest quarter-ending level since Q4 2008. Mixed global economic data fueled some of the euro's ascent. The flash EMU-16 September consumer price index wasoff 0.3% y/y, lower than August's -0.2% y/y decline. Nonetheless, many economists believe this pullback in CPI is... |
| USD Rallies on Soft Manufacturing Data
September 30, 2009 at 9:10 am
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| | The greenback advanced against its major rivals in the Wednesday trading session, edging higher against the euro toward the 1.46-level, while pushing the pound sterling to beneath the 1.60-figure and briefly dragging the Swiss franc to a 3-week low at 1.0447. The catalyst for the dollar's gains was a sharply... |
| USD Remains on the Defensive, Chicago PMI Disappoints
September 30, 2009 at 6:42 am
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| | USD traded lower Wednesday pressured by signs of improving global economic outlook as the IMF raises its 2010 growth forecast and economic data from Japan, Europe and Australia show improvement. The IMF raised its 2010 GDP forecast to 3.1% from 2.5%.Japans manufacturing PMI rose to a three year high, UK... |
| U.S. Market Update
September 30, 2009 at 6:33 am
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| | In currencies, greenback sentiment was soft on fresh risk appetite in the early going. EUR/USD surged to 1.4675 following the results of the ECB 12-month tender operation, which saw less demand than expected, prompting optimism that balance sheet stresses in the Euro Zone and emerging market countries have fallen significantly.... |
| ADP Signals Ongoing Weakness in Jobs, While Chicago PMI Signals Activity Remains Weak!
September 30, 2009 at 6:32 am
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| | The U.S. economy continued to show signs of improvement in the second quarter of this year, as the pace of contraction eased noticeably from the first quarter of this year, as the economy contracted by an annual rate of 6.4% back in the first quarter, however, conditions improved drastically since... |
| Euroland: Inflation in Temporary Decline
September 30, 2009 at 5:44 am
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| | Euroland HICP inflation declined to -0.3 % in September from -0.2 % in August. This was 0.1% below Friday's consensus expectations, but probably not a surprise to many following the negative surprises we already had received from e.g. Germany and Spain. We don't have a detailed breakdown, but it seems... |
| Chicago Business Barometer Surprisingly Dropped
September 30, 2009 at 5:30 am
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| | After a huge jump last month, the business barometer fell 3.9 points to 46.1. The production, new orders and supplier deliveries indices also decreased to below 50, indicating contraction. Given the large number of highly cyclical industries included in the survey, it is not unusual for the Chicago business barometer... |
| ISM Contraction Creates Dollar Chaos
September 30, 2009 at 5:05 am
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| | A mid-morning report showing an unexpected reversion to economic contraction in the Chicago-area had the same impact on currency values today as the butterfly that flapped its wings in the Amazonian jungle. An earlier report showing a larger slowdown in the pace of GDP contraction had boosted the dollar and... |
| Final Estimate of U.S. GDP Better than Expected
September 30, 2009 at 4:30 am
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| | The final, or third, estimate of second-quarter GDP indicated a smaller annualized decline of 0.7% relative to the preliminary estimate of -1%. Expectations going into the report were that the growth rate would likely be lowered to -1.2%. The second-quarter decline continues to represent a marked improvement from the 6.4%... |
| Canada's Economy Flatlines in July
September 30, 2009 at 4:29 am
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| | GDP output held steady in July, disappointing forecasts for a 0.5% monthly increase. Rebounding manufacturing and wholesale trade were offset by slumping output in the mining sector. June's gain was unrevised at 0.1%, marking the first rise in output after 10 consecutive monthly declines. The strength in July came... |
| Afternoon Forex Overview
September 30, 2009 at 4:14 am
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| | The dollar is broadly weaker Wednesday in New York, as improving European economic data overnight boosted the euro and profit repatriations boosted the yen. A better-than-expected U.S. second quarter gross domestic product report released as morning trading got underway gave the euro a slight boost, but potential gains may have... |
| Second Quarter GDP was Not as Weak as Initially Feared
September 30, 2009 at 3:53 am
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| | Smaller drops in IT spending and exports along with a larger rise in defense outlays resulted in a smaller-than-expected drop in second quarter real GDP. Third quarter GDP growth should be solidly positive. Revisions to the key private sector components were relatively small. Consumer spending now shows a 0.9 percent... |
| ADP Release Still Showing Eroding Payrolls
September 30, 2009 at 3:31 am
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| | The USD turned sharply weaker again in today's European session, driven by still elevated risk appetite and, most likely, strong month-end fixing flows as well. AUD,CAD and GBP were the over-achievers, all notching sharp gains vs. the greenback at their highs on the day. AUD punctured the 0.8800 for the... |
| Warm up for Friday…
September 30, 2009 at 3:22 am
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| | There have been much cryptic and not so cryptic comments of late from Federal Reserve Bank speakers. Some are implicitly calling for rate hikes sooner rather than later to mop up all the mess of money excess, others explicitly saying the Fed will likely surprise on the aggressiveness of future... |
| Gfk Consumer Confidence Marks Highest Since Beginning of 2008
September 30, 2009 at 2:43 am
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| | Today is the last day of the third quarter in the United Kingdom while lately we have been witnessing improvement and economic conditions are brightening as the BoE is buying gilts in an attempt to rescue the nation out of its worst recession since World War II. As a result... |
| Euroland: ECB LTRO - Just EUR75bn
September 30, 2009 at 2:33 am
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| | Just EUR75.2bn was allotted at today's 12-month long-term refinancing operation. The relatively low amount requested at today's auction reflects that market rates have fallen to very low levels and thus the auction is not as attractive as the one in June. The low demand is also a sign of improving... |
| Sterling Correction
September 30, 2009 at 2:16 am
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| | Overall confidence in the UK economy and currency will remain weak in the short term with markets still expecting underlying currency depreciation, especially as the policy mix will still be for a tighter fiscal policy and low interest rates. The currency was due for a correction after recent losses and... |
| JPY Rallies as Manufacturing PMI Hits a Three Year High
September 30, 2009 at 2:13 am
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| | JPY trades higher supported by repatriation flows ahead of Japan's fiscal half-year end and in reaction to report that Japan's manufacturing PMI hit a three year high in September, JPY was also supported by comments from Japan's Finance Minister Fujii that the new Japanese government will seek to boost domestic... |
| Canadian Dollar Alert On GDP
September 30, 2009 at 1:37 am
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| | In the overnight session Asian stocks were mixed again, with the Nikkei and China closing in the green, while the HIS ended the session lower by 0.28%. During that time the U.S.dollar fell against the major currencies as the dollar index bounced from the 77.20 resistance area that was... |
| Euro Area CPI Flash Remain Negative, Yet Unemployment Rate In Germany Beat Expectations
September 30, 2009 at 1:27 am
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| | Stimulus packages; policy makers across the euro area, thought that the already approved stimulus packages would stop the ongoing bleeding in the unemployment sector, since companies are terminating further jobs to weather down the effects of the Credit Crisis on their overall losses. They are trying to cut expanses, for... |
| Euroland: German Unemployment Declines
September 30, 2009 at 1:06 am
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| | German unemployment declined to 8.2% in September from 8.3% the previous month. The decline is the result of special effects from new labour market policy instruments. Without the special effects, unemployment would have risen by 10,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis instead of declining by 12,000, which implies a rise... |
| Dollar Selling Resumed In European Trading
September 30, 2009 at 12:39 am
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| | Overall, the European open proved to be relatively flat, but then the market started selling dollars at a strong pace, after the German labor numbers came in much better than expected. The pound and the aussie advanced against the dollar from the first few hours of the day, with the... |
| European Market Update
September 30, 2009 at 12:00 am
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| | In Currencies: The USD approached month and quarter end on a softer note as a rise in risk appetite aided the energy and metal commodities. The CAD and AUD pairs maintained their firm tone following the upward revision in the IMF global GDP for 2010. IMF also revised down its... |
| London Session Recap
September 29, 2009 at 11:58 pm
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| | Following an initial move lower EUR/USD has pushed higher during the European session in tune with the better tone of stock markets. A later boost for the EUR came from the results of the ECB's 1yr tender. News that the IMF has cut is estimates for global write downs on... |
| Australia Inches Closer To A Rate Hike
September 29, 2009 at 11:03 pm
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| | It seems global optimism is the theme for the day; one of our key barometers of risk sentiment, the Shanghai Composite, is up around 1% today, and correspondingly the DXY depressed as investors once again resumed the hunt for yield. In addition, there have been suggestions of encouraging improvements in... |
| FX - Sterling Rebounds
September 29, 2009 at 10:08 pm
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| | Sterling extended the rebound that started on Monday. The move was mainly technical in nature, but the eco data reinforced the price action. The yen declined a bit further after recent 'verbal interventions' from the Japanese Finance Minister, but we have the impression that the move has no strong legs. |
| Watching The ECB Refinance Operation
September 29, 2009 at 9:58 pm
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| | The USD traded higher yesterday against most major currencies with DXY approaching 77.45 resistance level reaching 77.33. A break above 77.45 would suggest further rally of the dollar towards 78-79 levels. US equities tended to drop yesterday with S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.2% and 0.6% respectively.... |
| The South Korean Central Bank Vows To Closely Monitor The Impact Of Their Policies
September 29, 2009 at 9:03 pm
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| | The South Korean central bank seems to be concerned regarding the impact of the unusual fiscal policies adopted to stabilize the entire economy on the financial system. In this sense, it vows to closely monitor the developments seen in asset prices, crediting and cash flows within the financial markets. |
| Morning Forex Overview
September 29, 2009 at 9:00 pm
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| | In the currency markets, the dollar fell back below the JPY90 mark, weighed down by exporters' sales, while the euro was also lower against the yen but up against the dollar. Dealers said the dollar and the euro were supported by month-end demand from Japanese importers for account settlement, while... |
| Asian Market Update
September 29, 2009 at 8:57 pm
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| | In currencies, Japanese Yen reversed some of the recent declines, rallying sharply across the board after speculation that BOJ may decide in October to allow corporate bond purchase programs to expire as scheduled in December. USD/JPY retreated below 90.00, while EUR/JPY fell from 132 to 131. In European FX, the... |
| Still Buy On Dips In Equities
September 29, 2009 at 8:35 pm
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| | As we have been writing about before, the FDIC is running out of money after 140 bank failures. The agency is now proposing to let banks pay 3 years of premiums in order to recapitalize the Deposit Insurance Fund. This amounts to around $10B for the four biggest US banks... |
| The Dollar Looks In Retreat As Month-End And Japanese Half-Year Approach
September 29, 2009 at 8:31 pm
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| | When it comes to consumer confidence, it would appear that the UK is now riding high above the US, a sharp contrast to the actual performance of the respective economies. Yesterday, US consumer confidence disappointed with a weak 53.1 reading, down from the previous month's 54.5 and an expected improvement... |
| Asia Session Recap
September 29, 2009 at 8:16 pm
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| | Today's trading in Asia was accentuated by the fact that in Japan it was month end, quarter end and fiscal half year end, thus pushing and pulling the yen, but with the yen ultimately higher as the session wound down. USD/JPY looked robust early as it pushed close to 90.40... |
| Today's Key Points
September 29, 2009 at 8:07 pm
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| | Currently there is a lot of political and central bank focus on exchange rates. Yesterday we saw some rare political backing of the greenback from Trichet and fellow ECB member Nowotny. But also Sterling continues to attract a lot of attention. The market is still wondering if there will be... |
| FX Daily Report
September 29, 2009 at 8:04 pm
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| | Sterling surged to a session high against the dollar and euro on Tuesday after figures showed a surprise rise in UK retail sales, wrong-footing the market which was broadly positioned for continued sterling weakness. Currency traders also cited a seminar at the Bank of England earlier on Tuesday with policymakers... |
| Daily Financial Market Outlook
September 29, 2009 at 6:12 pm
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| | Once again, sterling is making waves. In contrast to its recent bout of weakness against the US dollar, £/$ moved significantly higher following yesterday morning's meeting of 'City' economists convened by the Bank of England. On the face of it, this price action appeared to reflect a reassessment by markets,... |
| Markets Decline In Asia As Traders Scale Back Risk
September 29, 2009 at 5:20 pm
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| | Asian markets followed suit with the pullback in the US, as Traders and Investors look to reduce exposure to risk. Futures are pointing to a lower open in Australia and Japan, as commodity prices continue to slump on very precautious estimates on economic data scheduled to be released in Europe... |
| Markets Come Alive After Reports
September 29, 2009 at 4:16 pm
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| | Overall, the currency market saw little movement during the Asian session. The only pair to make a decent move has been the aussie which is trading higher shortly before the building approvals and retail sales are due to be released shortly. Any moves made on the other pairs were quickly... |
| Fear Of Fragile US Economic Recovery
September 29, 2009 at 4:08 pm
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| | The USD starts the week mostly higher supported by the Fed's statement last week that the US economy is improving. Investors however remain concerned about the potential strength of the US economic recovery. This week's US economic data will be key to the debate over whether the US recovery remains... |
| USD Getting Support Talk
September 29, 2009 at 3:52 pm
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| | U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gained as Officials in Japan and the European Union continued to support the Dollar and traders took risk off the table as US consumer data sparked fresh concerns. September Consumer Confidence slipped to 53.1 vs. 57 forecast and 54.5 previously. July Case Shiller forecast at 0.5%... |
| Forex Exchange Morning Report
September 29, 2009 at 3:50 pm
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| | Risk markets offered few fresh clues from last night's price action. Momentum from Monday's equities rebound ensured a strong NY opening, helped also by a reported improvement in US house prices in July. Consumer confidence hit the wires an hour later, and quelled the enthusiasm, the S&P500 closing +0.1% and... |
| EUR/USD Testing Support
September 29, 2009 at 3:42 pm
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| | The dollar traded mostly higher on Tuesday. The dollar index rose and tested the resistance from its long-term downtrend in the 77-78 area. If this is broken, the dollar will rally. US house prices climbed the most since 2005 while consumer confidence unexpectedly fell. The S&P 500 declined 2.37 points... |
| Greenback Stronger Vs Euro And Yen, Pound Up On Retail Sales Survey
September 29, 2009 at 3:39 pm
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| | The Euro-Dollar pair extended its recent fall, adhering to a downward sloping line of resistance since hitting a top at 1.4850. The decline in today's session began in European trading as stocks there were lower throughout most of the European session. The pair hit a low near 1.4525 in NY... |
| New York Session Recap
September 29, 2009 at 3:33 pm
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| | Markets were exceptionally choppy in the NY session as approaching quarter-end continues to make for overall thin conditions. US equities could not hold on to modest gains and closed down about -0.3% on the day. It was surprising that they did not fall further following an extremely downbeat US consumer... | | | 
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| Chart Of The Day: EUR/GBP
September 30, 2009 at 6:37 am
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| | Price action on EUR/GBP, a daily chart of which is shown, has made a minor bearish correction within a steep overall uptrend. This occurs after price hit an approximate 6-month high around 0.9300 with a clear shooting star candle (a bearish indication) earlier in the week. As of Wednesday (9/30/2009),... |
| USD/JPY Heads Back Below 90
September 30, 2009 at 5:12 am
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| | The USD/JPY is heading south again after failing to break our 2nd tier uptrend line. The psychological games continue at central banks across the globe, and the BoJ is no exception. The BoJ revised their previous hawkish statements by saying they would consider intervening if the Yen appreciated to unhealthy... |
| GBP/USD Consolidates Around 1.60
September 30, 2009 at 5:11 am
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| | The Cable recovered nicely from Monday lows, feeding off of a combination of oversold conditions, positively mixed British econ data, and reassuring comments from the BoE. Britain's Current Account came in weak as we anticipated, fueled by consumption in light of a stronger Pound. Net Lending to Individuals made an... |
| EUR/USD Buckles Following Weak U.S. Employment Data
September 30, 2009 at 5:09 am
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| | Today's rally in the EUR/USD has hit a roadblock after America's ADP Non-Farm Employment Change number came in well below analyst expectations. Today's release couples with yesterday's disappointing CB Consumer Confidence release. Therefore, the U.S. continues to send negatively mixed signals, hampering the global economic outlook. In contrast to weak... |
| GBPUSD: Higher Recovery Eyes The 1.6132 Level
September 30, 2009 at 3:25 am
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| | Having recovered off the 1.5768 level, its Sept 28'09 high and followed through higher on Tuesday to close higher at 1.5968, further price extension was seen in early trading today driving GBP through its nearby resistance at the 1.6063 level, its daily 200 ema. With the current strength, the pair... |
| AUDUSD: Activates Medium Term Uptrend
September 30, 2009 at 3:24 am
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| | As indicated in our Tuesday analysis, AUDUSD's recovery off the 0.8584 level has yielded the resumption of its medium term uptrend following its break through its YTD high at 0.8787 today. On a hold onto those gains above the said level, additional higher prices are expected towards its Aug 10'08... |
| FX Thoughts for the Day
September 30, 2009 at 2:39 am
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| | Swiss broke below the Channel line Support at 1.0320 mentioned earlier and is now trading lower keeping intact the overall bearish sentiment. Significant Support is seen at 1.0275. If it holds we might see a rise towards 1.0330-50 in the US session. However if it continues to trade below 1.0300,... |
| Usd/Cad Two Wave Counts Possible
September 30, 2009 at 1:34 am
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| | Usd/Cad is still trading lower, after the 1.0990 highs were hit in the past few days. Yesterday we mentioned that this current move could be just a pull-back of a black wave II) of an extended red wave III, before the up-trend continues. If this is the case then market... |
| Currency Technical Report
September 30, 2009 at 1:08 am
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| | Euro's decline was resumed yesterday, close to important support levels at 1,4500-20 (low at 1,4527). The upward reaction that followed, was expected but is still in terms of a correction. We will look for more signs regarding the short term trend reversal from 1.4840-50 tops. |
| Technical Analysis Daily: USD/JPY
September 30, 2009 at 12:15 am
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| | Dollar/Yen made an indecisive movement on Tuesday, forming divergence on the 3 hour chart. On the 1 hour chart the currency couple made an unconvincing break down of 88.50, down to 88.26, from where it started rising up to yesterday's top 90.32, closing the day at 90.08. An upward triangular... |
| Forex Technical Analysis
September 29, 2009 at 10:56 pm
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| | EUR/USD is in a broad consolidation, after bottoming at 1.2331 (Oct.28,2008). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4134 and 1.3523. |
| Daily FX Report
September 29, 2009 at 10:51 pm
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| | Since September, the EUR has lost against the CHF. It started a bearish phase along a downward Andrews Pitchfork channel. Currently, the market trades inside the lower channel and reached the support at 1.5084, but the support line was strong enough to pull back the EUR in the lower channel.... |
| Sterling Rebound After Strong Retracement Conclusion
September 29, 2009 at 10:29 pm
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| | U.K. consumer confidence jumped in September by the most since 1995 as optimism about the economy's prospects rebounded. An index of sentiment rose to minus 16, the highest since January 2008, from minus 25 the previous month, the market researcher said in an e-mailed statement today in London. A gauge of... |
| Technical Analysis Daily: GBP/USD
September 29, 2009 at 10:10 pm
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| | Pound/Dollar made a downward movement on Tuesday, reaching the 1.5829 bottom, as expected, where a the bearish impulse was limited and the Cable started rising up up to 1.5990, closing the day at 1.5959. After the strong downward momentum on 24-25 September down to 1.5925, the British Pound was oversold... |
| Foreign Exchange Market Commentary
September 29, 2009 at 9:13 pm
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| | EUR/USD closed lower on Tuesday due to short covering. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of this... |
| Forex Technical Analytics
September 29, 2009 at 9:06 pm
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| | The estimated test of key supports for the implementation of pre-planned buying positions has not been confirmed but further rate rise marked the sign of rate overbought with further reaction of relative sales activity rise that gives grounds to suppose further rate fall without clarifying the choice of planning priorities... |
| FX Technical Analysis
September 29, 2009 at 8:54 pm
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| | EURUSD Comment: A small bounce from support at 50% Fibonacci retracement and 26-day moving average at 1.4500. If we can take out yesterday's high at 1.4646 allow for a squeeze to the 9-day average at 1.4683. Hardly compelling stuff but that's what we have to expect for a period of... |
| Technical Analysis for Crosses
September 29, 2009 at 8:00 pm
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| | The subsidiary image shows a bearish candlestick structure accompanied by weakness of the upside correction, signaling that the pressure of the bigger picture Elliott sequence may start aggressively anytime as a normal result for the highly anticipated fifth wave scenario. Therefore we keep our intraday overview to the downside on... |
| Technical Analysis for Major Currencies
September 29, 2009 at 7:53 pm
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| | The cable gradually inclined yesterday, to reach the correction level at 1.6035, which resides at the key resistance for the minor bullish channel, seen in the image above. The stochastic indicator has entered an overbought area, which makes us believe the pair is to decline on the intraday basis; targeting... |
| USD/JPY Find Resistance At 61.8 Fib
September 29, 2009 at 7:46 pm
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| | After a steep drop below the 90 price level, the USD/JPY has begun to find its feet and has recovered a large portion of the previous decline. Despite the positive gains, the current recovery is being hinder by resistance at the 90.26 price level. |
| Technical Analysis Daily: EUR/USD
September 29, 2009 at 7:22 pm
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| | The descending scenario of the Euro/Dollar is still intact as the currency couple went down to 1.4534 on Tuesday, than rising up to 1.4643 as expected, closing the day at 1.4584. On the 3 hour chart descending channel is formed. However, this morning, the European is correcting upwards. The nearest... |
| The Daily Forecaster: EURJPY
September 29, 2009 at 6:25 pm
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| | No break was seen below 130.48 and gains seen from the 130.69 corrective low. I'm a bit mixed and there does seem risk of price retesting this 130.69 area again - but probably not below 130.60. If this is seen look for a bullish reversal pattern. Overall, I still remain... |
| Market Morning Briefing
September 29, 2009 at 5:42 pm
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| | Yesterday's corrective fall in the Asian-European hours for most non-Dollar currencies has given way to a fresh rise in the US hours yesterday and in Asia today. The Euro (1.4625) has risen from a low of 1.4526 while the Aussie (0.8792) has surged from a low near 0.8676. Some Resistance... |
| Daily Technical Analysis
September 29, 2009 at 4:37 pm
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| | The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.4527 but closed higher at 1.4583. Although bearish correction seems limited now, on h4 chart below we still have a valid bearish channel and the pair still able to move below 1.4595 for now, indicating bearish correction remains valid testing 1.4440... | | | 
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