29 September 2009

9/30 Forex Fundamental Analysis Reports (ActionForex.com)

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Sideways Crawl Ahead Of Big Calendar
September 29, 2009 at 10:43 am

Overall, the currency market moved very little in Tuesday trade, following the slow trading session seen in the equity and global commodity markets. Moreover, every major pair is now trading between TheLFB R1 and S1, unable to break anywhere importantly. This denotes the general lack of momentum, but the market...

Forex Fundamental Outlook
September 29, 2009 at 9:30 am

European Central Bank officials spoke about the economy today with member Constancio noting "There is still great uncertainty regarding the depth and sustainability of a global recovery, which has led some analysts to say it might be slower than is desirable. The low level of capacity utilization and the moderate...

USD Higher, Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Falls
September 29, 2009 at 6:42 am

USD traded mixed Tuesday with GBP supported by report of stronger than expected September CBI retail sales, JPY pressured by statement from Japan's Finance Minister Fujii that he has not ruled out intervention in Forex markets, and EUR trading lower pressured in cross trade to the GBP and by report...

Consumer Confidence Is Stuck in the Slow Lane
September 29, 2009 at 6:30 am

Consumer confidence fell 1.4 points in September to 53.1, as consumers continue to express ongoing concerns about both current and future employment prospects. The number of households expressing that jobs are "hard to get" rose 2.7 points to 47.0 percent, while those reporting jobs were "plentiful" fell 0.9 points to...

U.S. Market Update
September 29, 2009 at 6:25 am

In currencies, New York trading saw plenty of data and comments that spurred choppy price action in numerous pairs. Sterling soared to 1.5988 in the early New York session following the release of the CBI data, as the move corresponded with comments leaking out from an emergency meeting between the...

U.S. Consumer Confidence Dips; House Prices Rise
September 29, 2009 at 5:12 am

Consumer confidence dipped to 53.1 in September compared to 54.5 in August (revised from 54.1). Expectations had been for a rise to 57. House prices for July, as measured by the Case-Shiller 20-city composite index were better than expected. Prices are still down 13.3% over the year, but this compares...

Late European Session Snapshot
September 29, 2009 at 5:10 am

Japanese Fin. Min. Fujii yet again unsettled the FX markets with more baffling rhetoric this morning, with the ensuing JPY fall boosting Asian stocks to close higher. Since then however, European equity markets have failed to get much of a foothold and most indices remain flat over the course of...

Confidence Drop as Americans Still Fear the Outlook for the Labor Market!
September 29, 2009 at 5:01 am

Consumer confidence retreated in September according to the U.S. Conference Board, as conditions are still challenging amid rising unemployment and tightened credit conditions, though the economy has been showing signs of improvement recently, yet consumers are yet to feel a drastic change over the outlook of the economy. Consumer confidence...

GBP Finally Makes a Stand on Strong Retail Sales Numbers
September 29, 2009 at 5:00 am

GBP finally rallied late yesterday and more convincingly today after the CBI report for September blasted expectations out of the water. EURGBP was trading close to 200 pips off its spike highs from yesterday's Asian session in what looks like a climax reversal, indicating that if EURGBP is going to...

Dollar Comeback Continues
September 29, 2009 at 4:48 am

We noted the toil and trouble in yesterday's commentary faced by Japanese finance minister, Hirohisa Fujii as he tried to balance his comments about the currency. He may yet find that it's his very own comments that are creating the level of volatility that he promised he'd address. The latest...

Afternoon Forex Overview
September 29, 2009 at 4:31 am

The dollar is holding its modest gains against most of its major rivals early Tuesday, amid an uncertain risk environment and mixed signals from equity markets. The dollar was bid cautiously higher overnight ahead of some key U.S. housing and consumer confidence data later Tuesday as risk appetites suffered from...

A Crude Indicator for the Real Economy
September 29, 2009 at 3:11 am

Greater-than-expected confidence numbers again come out of Europe. The status relative to historical numbers can be seen below: Plus, new US Consumer Confidence numbers are due out later this morning. Consensus estimates expect a nice improvement from the last reading: 57 vs. 54.1.

United Kingdom's Second Quarter Contraction Revised Upwards
September 29, 2009 at 3:07 am

Today we see that in the United Kingdom, the quarter contraction narrows further as the GDP final reading was revised upwards as a result an improvement in the dominate sectors that fuel economic growth yet the annual contraction was unchanged at 5.5% the worst since 1955. The Office for National...

Europe: Confidence Rises to the Highest in a Year, Adding to Signs of Recovery
September 29, 2009 at 2:28 am

The Euro region released new buoyant data today, adding signs that the worst is over and the sharpest economic recession in more than 70 years is receding. Economic confidence rose for the sixth consecutive month in September, marking the highest level in a year. Improvement is continuing day after day...

GBP Rallies Supported by above Forecast Retail Sales
September 29, 2009 at 2:19 am

GBP rebounds supported by report of better than expected CBI retail sales, JPY trades lower as Japanese officials backpedaled on comments opposing intervention in Forex markets, USD edges higher as equity markets decline and the FDIC may ask banks to prepay insurance to help the FDIC bridge its funding gap,...

Near-Term Yen Peak
September 29, 2009 at 12:42 am

Capital repatriation flows should now ease which will lessen upward pressure on the yen. Comments from government officials will continue to be watched very closely and the evidence suggests that Finance Minister Fujii will take a more cautious attitude and avoid comments in favour of a strong yen. Markets will...

London Session Recap
September 29, 2009 at 12:39 am

European stocks markets failed to pick up the positive lead set by their Asian counterparts. Another wave of concerns that 2009 has been a 'tough' year stoked concerns about corporate performance and encouraged the USD to move higher vs the EUR and the JPY. Selling in the JPY had been...

Lots of Comments on Currency Prices
September 29, 2009 at 12:34 am

In the aftermath of the G20 meeting it seems that policy makers are still clearly disturbed about the state of exchange rates. In the last few days we have heard choirs of high profile complaints against currency strength. With the EURCHF trading around the 1.5100 level, markets should be focused...

Dollar Bulls Lead In European Trade
September 29, 2009 at 12:27 am

Overall, dollar index lost a few points during the Asian session, but the London open helped the dollar strengthen against the major currencies. Still, the gains are relatively small, with most of the major pairs trading within the range of the prior U.S. session. Moreover, the entire financial market moved...

European Market Update
September 29, 2009 at 12:05 am

In Currencies: The USD seems to slowly grind a bid against the European currencies recover against the commodity currencies as the session unfolded. The dollar seemed to follow the commodity markets for its tone. The Chinese Steel Group CISA stated ahead of the trading day that its saw global iron...

Investors Wait On The Yen As BOJ Says It May Take Action On The JPY's Strength
September 28, 2009 at 11:09 pm

The yen weakened against the dollar as Japan's Finance Minister said the government may take action in markets after the currency's gain to an eight month high. The dollar weakened against the euro on speculation Federal Reserve officials speaking today will signal intentions to keep record- low interest rates unchanged...

Risk Appetite Is Still On
September 28, 2009 at 9:55 pm

One caveat: Today's Conference Board Consumer Confidence is expected at 57, but the weekly ABC Consumer Confidence has not been improving noticeably in the past weeks. Expect a slight disappointment.

Calm Return As Yen Storm Slows Down
September 28, 2009 at 9:41 pm

On Monday, aggressive yen buying left its traces on all major currency cross rates. However, the Japanese Finance Minister backtracked on its yen supportive comments. The subsequent correction of the yen also eased tensions in other major cross rates. EUR/USD failed to gain on the strong stock market performance

The Current Account Surplus Shrinks In South Korea
September 28, 2009 at 9:34 pm

The fears expressed by the South Korean officials regarding a softer demand started to get confirmed, as companies sales went on declining again, and this was reflected on the current account surplus during the month of August that fell to the lowest in seven months, as result to the falling...

UK Final GDP Unlikely To Be Sterling's Salvation
September 28, 2009 at 9:09 pm

It was a quiet day in the FX space yesterday, with German CPI releases forming the entirety of the data releases during our session. The overall reading came in at -0.4% M/M (vs. +0.2% expected) but came as little surprise to the market, as regional figures released earlier all posted...

Morning Forex Overview
September 28, 2009 at 9:08 pm

The dollar and euro rose against the yen in Asia Tuesday as Japanese importers bought the two currencies to procure natural resources cheaply from overseas, but traders expect the greenback to soon resume falling.

Markets In Limbo In Asia As Japan Finance Minister Fujii Finds Reverse Gear For His Comments
September 28, 2009 at 8:45 pm

Dollar bulls that went home happy at the end of the Asian session yesterday were in for a surprise during the night. A strong performance by equity markets in the face of renewed M&A talk and greater optimism about prospects in the financial sector put a brake on the dollar's...

Asia Session Recap
September 28, 2009 at 8:43 pm

The session in Asia was characterized by the yen as it continued to slip off of its highs it had visited only 24 hours ago in yesterday's dynamic buying spree. Japan's Finance Minister Fujii continued his one man show as he sparked yen selling with subtle hints at intervention and...

FX Daily Report
September 28, 2009 at 8:28 pm

The dollar rebounded from an eight-month low against the yen on Monday after Japan's finance minister appeared to tone down comments suggesting he was comfortable with the Japanese currency's strength.

Today's Key Points
September 28, 2009 at 8:16 pm

With focus on the bellwether data and the ECB 12-month tender later this week today's data will have a hard time moving markets. However, the strength of the US consumption is at the forefront of things at the moment, which can draw attention to the consumer confidence data from the...

Asian Market Update
September 28, 2009 at 8:12 pm

In currencies, jawboning by the Japanese officials extended the Yen decline, with USD/JPY rising above 90.00, EUR/JPY breaking above 131.70, and GBP/JPY recovering above the weak-opening 143.00 handle. GBP also retraced its selloff after PM Brown backed away from perceived tolerance of weakening Sterling, as GBP/USD rose above 1.5950 and...

Daily Financial Market Outlook
September 28, 2009 at 6:04 pm

Financial markets have resumed their ascent, partly on expectations/ hopes that policy comments and actions this week will underscore the likelihood that markets will remain flooded with excess liquidity for some time to come. In this regard, the ECB is due to conduct another 12-month repo operation today. Although the...

No Call For A New Reserve Currency From The G-20
September 28, 2009 at 4:05 pm

USD traded mixed Monday as the G-20 meeting ends without a fresh call to replace the USD as the world's reserve currency. G-20 officials announced Friday that the G-20 will supplant the G-8 as the international economic council and include developing nations like China, Brazil and India. The G-20 proposes...

US Stocks Rebound M&A Action
September 28, 2009 at 3:40 pm

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) found strength in Asia on Nikkei losses (-2.5%) but had a very volatile day against the Yen. A sharpy reversal in Sentiment in the US session from a substantial broad based rally in US stocks sent the Dollar lower once again. Oil rallied as much as...

Forex Exchange Morning Report
September 28, 2009 at 3:37 pm

In a thinner US session (Yom Kippur holiday saw equity volume down 20%) the S&P500 rebounded at the open and held the gains to close up 1.7%. There was little of substance to attribute the bounce to, the second-tier data releases - the Chicago and Dallas Fed surveys - underwhelming,...

Yen Weakens During Asian Session
September 28, 2009 at 3:30 pm

Overall, the major pairs are starting to come alive during the Asian session. Most pairs were content using the pivot points as its support or resistance during the earlier part of the session. During the session the consumer price index was released from Japan. The report showed that prices fell...

Greenback Gains Despite Stock Market Rally
September 28, 2009 at 3:24 pm

The dollar traded mostly higher on Monday despite a US equity market rally. Stocks rose for the first day in five. The S&P 500 climbed 18.60 points to 1,062.98. The USD/JPY recovered overnight losses after Japan's Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii, who opposes intervening in the currency markets, stated that he...

Yen Opens Up Stronger, But Risk Sentiment Improves in NY Session
September 28, 2009 at 3:15 pm

We begin this week with a look at the Dollar-Yen pair, which hit an eight-month low to during the Asian session, out of a growing view that US interest rates will remain low for longer than expected, and a plunge in Asian stocks. Traders and investors are speculating that the...

New York Session Recap
September 28, 2009 at 3:12 pm

Inter-market correlations broke down as quarter-end looms and the US dollar came back better bid. US equities added 1.8% in broad terms as volumes were ostensibly thin. The jump was despite ominous economic data. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index continued to flash below trend growth ahead, dipping to a...
 

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