01 October 2009

10/2 Forex Fundamental Analysis Reports (ActionForex.com)

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Markets Calm Before U.S. Employment Reports
October 1, 2009 at 4:27 pm

Overall, there was not much volatility seen during the Asian session. Most of the majors traded in tight ranges and the only pair that broke that mold was the cable which has weakened by over 40 pips. The majors may have reduced volatility until the employment reports are released from...

Forex Exchange Morning Report
October 1, 2009 at 3:28 pm

Risk markets took a hit last night on the back of two negative US data surprises. First up, jobless claims rose more than expected, although the trend improvement remains intact, so the jolt was minor. The later ISM manufacturing report did more damage, showing the important new orders/inventories ratio (a...

US Stocks Plunge
October 1, 2009 at 3:17 pm

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) found strength in Adversity as risk trades were pared back overnight. US stocks fell the most in 3 months on the first day of the quarter as data missed expectations. US September ISM manufacturing was at 52.6 vs. 54 forecast. Weekly Jobless claims at 550k vs....

Dollar Index At Critical Resistance
October 1, 2009 at 3:15 pm

The dollar rose on Thursday as risk aversion increased. The S&P 500 dropped 27.23 points to 1,029.85. The treasury 30-year bond yield fell below 4% for the first time since April. US initial jobless claims increased, the ISM US manufacturing PMI declined and inflation remained subdued, casting doubt over the...

Greenback And Yen Gain On Weak Stocks, Risk Aversion
October 1, 2009 at 3:10 pm

We start with fundamental news from Japan, which posted its quarterly survey of manufacturers. The headline index of sentiment among large manufacturers climbed to minus 33 in the 3rd quarter from minus 49 in the second. Though the index showed improvement, the report also showed that large business aim to...

S&P Plunge Help Dollar Strengthen
October 1, 2009 at 11:05 am

Overall, the dollar index strengthened against every other major pair in Thursday trade with the exception of the yen, as the U.S. markets plunged, even from the first few minutes of trading. The pairs worst effected by the sell-off were the aussie and the cad, which looked strongly overvalued recently....

New York Session Recap
October 1, 2009 at 10:59 am

The pattern of worse than expected forward-looking economic data elicited a flight to safety in the NY session. US equities slumped -2.6% in broad terms for the largest one-day decline since we kicked off the month of July. The US initial jobless claims number printed a much worse than anticipated...

Forex Fundamental Outlook
October 1, 2009 at 10:22 am

The common currency gave back recent gains on a report the Group of Seven may discuss the euro's recent strength when they convene in Istanbul this weekend. Furthermore, Fed Chairman Bernanke testified that the U.S. dollar's status as a global reserve currency is not in jeopardy in the short term...

USD Extends Gains as Jobless Claims Rise and Stocks Fall
October 1, 2009 at 8:15 am

Concern about the global recovery boosts the USD.USD traded higher Thursday supported by weaker equity market trade and report that the EU is concerned about EUR appreciation. Equity markets traded lower in reaction to disappointing economic data from Europe as the EU unemployment rate rises to a 10 year high,...

Income and Spending Rise, But Manufacturing and Jobless Claims Disappoint!
October 1, 2009 at 6:37 am

The U.S. economy continues to show sings that the worst of this recession is behind us already, as income and spending and rising again, while activity in several economic sectors including the manufacturing and the housing sectors continues to rise, as the economy seems to be on its way to...

U.S. Market Update
October 1, 2009 at 5:38 am

In currencies, the greenback maintained its firm tone against the EUR and CHF pairs following initial comments from EU's Almunia before the European session. As the New York morning commenced, ECB Chief Trichet confirmed that FX was discussed today's EuroFin meeting while other European finance ministers complained about the effect...

Data Releases Show U.S. Economy in Positive Growth Territory
October 1, 2009 at 5:19 am

The ISM manufacturing index edged down to 52.6 in September following its 52.9 reading in August. Expectations were for a significantly stronger 54. Prices paid declined to 63.5 from 65 in August. Even though the ISM manufacturing index disappointed expectations of a jump to 54, September's 52.6 reading puts the...

Strong Rise in U.S. Personal Consumer Spending
October 1, 2009 at 5:18 am

Personal consumer expenditure (PCE) jumped 1.3% in August following a 0.3% gain in July. Expectations had been for a solid rise in August, but at a slightly more moderate pace of 1.1%. The strong increase occurred despite personal income rising only 0.2%, although this was slightly stronger than the 0.1%...

Japanese Politics and the Yen
October 1, 2009 at 4:59 am

The U.S. dollar has been getting a beating from all sides, but its woes may be far from over - recent developments in Japan, China, Germany and the United Kingdom, not to speak of domestic developments in the U.S., are pointing to a rocky road ahead. Today's focus is on...

Afternoon Forex Overview
October 1, 2009 at 4:47 am

The dollar is stronger in early Thursday trading, as concerns over a global economic recovery continue to reduce risk appetite. Modest gains in U.S. personal income and spending were offset by a worse-than-expected weekly jobless report, leading the euro to hit an intraday low against the dollar before retracing some...

Late European Session Snapshot
October 1, 2009 at 4:46 am

The big focus for markets has obviously been the US data releases this afternoon; jobs data were mixed with initial claims topping estimates at 551K (535K consensus), but continuing claims shrinking to 6090K (6170K expected, 6138K previous). It was also notable that the improvement in Personal Spending in Aug was...

Equity Market Loss of Momentum Helps Buoy Dollar
October 1, 2009 at 4:43 am

For want of a better direction today the dollar is advancing, spurred in part by comments from ECB top-dog, Trichet who made reference to currency volatility. That's a polite way of complaining about strength in the euro as the dollar suffers from the fallout of growing risk appetite. Investors are...

ISM: Recovery Yes But No Acceleration - Jobs Lag
October 1, 2009 at 4:41 am

The ISM index remained in expansion territory at 52.6 with positive signals in orders, supplier deliveries and production. Yet employment still lags and prices paid remain elevated. The jobless recovery continues. The headline ISM manufacturing index at 52.6 is consistent with expansion in the manufacturing sector. Expansion signals were delivered...

ECB, EuroZone Politicians Clearly Fed Up with Euro Strength
October 1, 2009 at 3:32 am

The ECB upset the apple cart today as the ECB's Trichet said that Euro finance ministers and central bank representatives discussed currency issues at a G-7 meeting today. Mr. Trichet said little that was new, repeating past statements that a strong USD is "extremely important", but clearly, the strong EUR...

Central Bankers Seek a Dollar Bottom; Bonds Favored Over Stocks?
October 1, 2009 at 3:28 am

The Bank of England last week made comments regarding some recent weakness in the British pound. It was seen as a potential boost to the UK economy as they'd love to resuscitate what external demand for their exports, albeit a relatively small portion of their economy. There seems to be...

Income & Spending Both Gained in August
October 1, 2009 at 3:22 am

Cash for clunkers sent consumers to auto dealerships en masse and spending increased 1.3 percent, the biggest jump in eight years. We expect a large portion of the gain to be reversed in September. Spending jumped sharply as consumers rushed to take advantage of the cash for clunkers program. Spending...

IMF Raises Growth Projections for UK While Manufacturing Sector Remains Contracting
October 1, 2009 at 3:17 am

Today as the manufacturing sector contraction widened slightly renewed fears in the United Kingdom that the worst of this global recession is not yet over while the IMF raised its growth projections for the economy for next year which was the bright news for the day. Starting of with the...

Europe: PMI Manufacturing Rises to 16-Month High, While Unemployment Continues Its Incline
October 1, 2009 at 2:43 am

The Euro Zone is showing ongoing improvement as indicated by the data released day after day. The nascent recovery signs seen starting from the second quarter are continuing in the third quarter and are expected to continue till the end of the year. Policy makers at the ECB, through their...

Euroland: PMI Signals Two-Speed Recovery
October 1, 2009 at 2:07 am

The recovery in Euroland is becoming more uneven with Spain and Greece in particular lagging behind France and Germany. Our outlook for both Spain and Greece is rather pessimistic. Spanish manufacturing PMI declined from 47.2 to 45.8 in September and new orders fell back from 51.3 to 48.7. The decline...

Japan: Tankan Suggests Strong Recovery
October 1, 2009 at 2:03 am

The Tankan business survey compiled by Bank of Japan suggests the recovery remains in place and the early recovery phase is likely to be quite strong. Both manufacturers and non-manufacturers report that conditions have improved in Q3 and they expect further improvement in Q4. Not surprisingly the improvement has been...

G7 Looks To Support Dollar
October 1, 2009 at 1:02 am

There will be further speculation that G7 countries will look to put a floor under the dollar as instability and sharp dollar losses would be a negative factor for the global economy. Underlying dollar confidence will still be weak which will certainly limit buying support. In the near term, there...

Dollar Roller Coaster Thursday Trade
October 1, 2009 at 12:53 am

Overall, the euro and the swissy saw some strong orders pushed into the market ahead of the European open, but the rest of the major pairs moved very little at that time. Even so, the majors retraced most of the move back, and since then market has moved mostly side-ways,...

London Session Recap
October 1, 2009 at 12:12 am

The EUR was hit hard early in the European session on a wire report that EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Almunia said that the Eurogroup will discuss the appreciation of the EUR ahead of this weekend's G7 meeting. Generally, G7 communiqués bring little reference to fx markets except to stress there...

European Market Update
October 1, 2009 at 12:08 am

In Currencies: The USD strengthened just ahead of the European morning following comments from EU's Almunia that the Euro-group would discuss appreciation of EUR as it prepared its position ahead of this Saturday's G7 meeting in Istanbul. European Finance Ministers and Central Bankers met at informal EcoFin in Sweden today....

Will The US ISM Disappoint?
September 30, 2009 at 11:46 pm

Yesterday's data releases from the US were a first insight into the more important Non-Farm Payrolls and ISM to come - and the signs were not good. While the correlation between ADP Employment and NFP numbers is historically quite dubious, it almost certainly resets psychology in terms of expectations for...

US Dollar Trading Marginally Lower Ahead Of Key Data
September 30, 2009 at 9:42 pm

Yesterday, the price action in USD/JPY and EUR/USD was capped in tight ranges, driven by technical trading. Orderdriven activity pushed sterling temporarily higher, but also these gains could not be sustained. Today might bring more wait-and-see behaviour ahead of tomorrow's payrolls

China's Industrial Sector Continues To Grow For The Seventh Month In A Row
September 30, 2009 at 9:21 pm

The industrial sector in China continues to grow and expand for the seventh consecutive month, reaching in September to its highest in 17 months, confirming that the Chinese economy was able to get rid of the negative effects of the worst global crisis since the Great Depression.

ADP Report Tempers Optimism For Non-Farm Payrolls
September 30, 2009 at 9:20 pm

This week's economic calendar went from famine to feast yesterday as the Eurozone spun out better than expected German Unemployment figures (8.2% vs. 8.4% exp.), and rumours of good US employment figures to come spurred equities and other risky assets higher in the morning session (EURUSD rallied to 1.4671, crude...

Morning Forex Overview
September 30, 2009 at 9:18 pm

The dollar and euro edged up against the yen in Asia Thursday as Japanese institutional investors bought the units to fund overseas investments at the start of the fourth quarter. But dealers said the buying was moderate, suggesting the currencies would not rise much more against the yen. Other...

ISM Manufacturing To Disappoint?
September 30, 2009 at 9:16 pm

A lot of data out today. Most important is probably the ISM Manufacturing. We believe that it could disappoint by coming out at 51 or below. Despite a lower than expected Chicago PMI, stocks were able to regain the lost territory and the HY universe is still doing okay.

Asia Holds Steady At The Start Of Q4. Fireworks Started When Europe Came In
September 30, 2009 at 8:34 pm

The dollar finished Q3 with mixed feelings after early fixing flows had pressured the greenback, but later US data continued its theme of generally disappointing and the dollar was able to stage a modest comeback. While markets could garner some positives from the upward revision to Q2 GDP numbers (to...

FX Daily Report
September 30, 2009 at 8:30 pm

The Swiss National Bank declined to comment on talk that it intervened in the foreign exchange market to weaken the Swiss franc on Wednesday. 'We have no comment on this,' SNB spokesman Nicolas Haymoz said when asked about a sharp drop in the Swiss franc. The SNB renewed its full...

Asian Market Update
September 30, 2009 at 8:15 pm

In currencies, USD strengthened against European majors after EU's Almunia said the Eurogroup will discuss appreciation of EUR, looking to prepare a position ahead of this Saturday's G7 meeting. EUR/USD approached 2-week lows trading down toward 1.4550, and USD/CHF rose above 1.07. USD also strengthened against the Yen, rising above...

Today's Key Points
September 30, 2009 at 8:00 pm

In the FX market the action kicks off this afternoon with the ISM report. We expect a positive reading that should add to risk appetite in the market and the 'usual' weaker dollar market reaction. From a technical point of view we continue to see upside risk to EUR/USD with...

Asia Session Recap
September 30, 2009 at 7:46 pm

While market ranges looked eerily familiar to yesterdays, the end results differed in that after an early decline, the US Dollar came clawing back to respectable levels. Risk was back on the table after the Japanese Tankan survey came in better for a second straight quarter, helping to accentuate the...

Daily Financial Market Outlook
September 30, 2009 at 6:24 pm

Stock markets have taken fright at yesterday's generally weakerthan- expected US economic data, with Treasuries moving higher. Final Q2 GDP figures showed a fairly benign 0.7% annualised pace of contraction against a consensus estimate of -1.2%. But the combination of a weak ADP and Chicago PMI report has cast fresh...

Oil Soars Above $70 A Barrel
September 30, 2009 at 5:25 pm

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) lost ground after a few days of strength and consolidation. Commodity currencies led the rally against the Dollar with AUD/USD breaking fresh year highs. US Data was surprisingly weak with September ADP Employment -254k vs. -200k expected. Chicago PMI forecast at 52 shocked at 46.1. In...

Yen Expected To Drop Lower On Comments From Japanese Finance Ministry
September 30, 2009 at 5:12 pm

The economic environment in Japan has been less than attractive for investors considering the extremely low yields and heavily export driven growth. A recent wave of central bank commentary regarding intervention has been a significant component of the recent rally in major currency pairs.

Majors Moving During Asian Session
September 30, 2009 at 4:49 pm

Overall, there was a little bit of volatility during the Asian session. The major pairs were already making some moves early on with the aussie gaining 30 pips, followed by the euro and swissy which strengthened by 25 pips. The cad has gained 23 pips while the pound increased 18...

Preview of US September Unemployment
September 30, 2009 at 4:36 pm

The August US unemployment rate rose to a 26 year high at 9.7%. August nonfarm payrolls posted the smallest decline since August 2008 at -216k. There were downward revisions to the June and July nonfarm payrolls with 20k more jobs lost in June and 29k more lost in July than...

Forex Exchange Morning Report
September 30, 2009 at 3:36 pm

Quarter-end window-dressing effects were unobservable during the first hour of US equities trading, the consensus-missing ADP payrolls and Chicago PMI reports helping the S&P500 drop 1.6% at the open. Buying then kicked in, and the index is unchanged as we write. The month-end currency fixing, during which equity fund managers...

Aussie Hits Yearly High
September 30, 2009 at 3:26 pm

The dollar fell in volatile trading Wednesday. The S&P 500 declined 3.53 points to 1,057.08 but recovered most of earlier losses incurred on a disappointing Chicago PMI report. Risk appetite returned after Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said slack in the US economy means the Fed can keep interest...

Euro Firms Vs Greenback On A Day Full Of Fundamental Releases
September 30, 2009 at 3:20 pm

We begin today's broadcast in Europe, where the German economy saw unemployment decline by a seasonally adjusted 12K in September. That helped the unemployment rate decline to 8.2%. However, the data does not represent a turnaround in the labor market according to the Federal Labor Agency. The economic crisis will...

New York Session Recap
September 30, 2009 at 3:12 pm

The NY session was an absolute chop-fest but the USD was once again the proverbial whipping boy. US equities slipped a modest -0.3% after testing multiple times into positive terrain. It was surprising that stocks did not give up more ground in the face of more bad news on the...
 

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